By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls still seem to be in control. The largest cryptocurrency posted a record-high daily close on Tuesday, at $106,830, as it extends its strong upward momentum with minimal pullbacks, putting the previous all-time high of just over $109,000 from Jan. 20 well within reach.
This price action has significantly boosted bitcoin-leveraged equities, with Japan’s MetaPlanet (3350) standing out—its stock has surged 160% in 2025 alone. Strategy (MSTR), the poster boy for bitcoin buying, has added 44%.
MetaPlanet has repeatedly hit Japan’s daily limit-up threshold within minutes of market open, effectively freezing upward trading for the day and fueling what resembles a slow-motion short squeeze.
Speculation around MetaPlanet’s aggressive bitcoin accumulation, as indicated by metrics like Days to Cover mNAV, is driving investor frenzy. Still, CEO Simon Gerovich recently posted on X that MetaPlanet is now the most shorted stock in Japan, with 25% of outstanding shares held short.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions add to the complexity.
Japanese bond yields are spiking, with the 30-year yield climbing above 3.1% and the 10-year surpassing 1.5% — the highest since 2008. In the U.K., inflation unexpectedly climbed to a 15-month high, pushing the 10-year gilt yield toward the critical 5% level.
With bitcoin nearing new highs amid rising global yields and persistent inflationary pressures, markets are entering a phase of heightened volatility that demands keen attention. Stay alert!
What to Watch
CryptoMay 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day.May 22: Top 220 TRUMP token holders will attend a gala dinner hosted by President Trump at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington.May 30: The second round of FTX repayments starts.MacroDay 2 of 3: Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will co-host the three-day meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Banff, Alberta.May 21, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. -1.1%May 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q1 GDP growth data.GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.6%GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.5%May 22, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April producer price inflation data.PPI MoM Est. -0.5% vs. Prev. 0.5%.PPI YoY Prev. 4.7%.May 22, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 17.Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 229KEarnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88
Token Events
Governance votes & callsArbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program to reward community sleuths for uncovering misuse of the hundreds of millions in grants, incentives and service budgets the DAO has deployed. Voting ends May 23.Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40, “Callisto.” bringing them in line with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. The proposal schedules activation for June 17, and voting ends May 29.May 21, 11 a.m: Maple to host an X spaces session to “unveil the next chapter of Maple.”May 22: Official Trump to announce its “next Era” at the day of the dinner for the largest token holders.June 10: Ether.fi to host an analyst call followed by a Q&A session.UnlocksMay 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.58 million.June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $169.38 million.June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.33 million.June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.36 million.June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $57.91 million.Token LaunchesMay 21: Mantra (OM) to be listed on Upbeat and the Crypto.com app.June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
Conferences
Day 3 of 7: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam)Day 2 of 3: Avalanche Summit LondonDay 2 of 3: Seamless Middle East Fintech 2025 (Dubai)Day 1 of 2: Crypto Expo DubaiDay 1 of 2: Cryptoverse Conference (Warsaw)May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 (Las Vegas)May 27-30: Web Summit VancouverMay 29: Stablecon (New York)May 29-30: Litecoin Summit 2025 (Las Vegas)May 29-June 1: Balkans Crypto 2025 (Tirana, Albania)June 2-7: SXSW London
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight
Hailey Welch, aka “Hawk Tuah Girl,” is distancing herself from the failed HAWK memecoin she promoted in December 2024, despite initially calling it a compliant, fan-focused project.On her Talk Tuah podcast, Welch said she was questioned by the FBI, gave her phone to the SEC, and was “cleared” of wrongdoing, claiming she was an unwitting participant.Welch now says she didn’t understand crypto and felt “sick” that fans trusted her, contrasting her November 2024 enthusiasm, when she claimed to have “learned so much” about the token.HAWK, launched on Solana, reached a $491 million market cap before crashing below $100 million within hours. It’s now at $104,000, down 99% from its peak.Welch claimed user losses were $180,000, much lower than the estimated $1.2 million. Her figure excludes 10,149 token holders who never sold, per Solscan.Commentators criticized Welch for endorsing a project she didn’t understand, with YouTube comments highlighting her lack of accountability.Welch’s team previously stated the project was legally compliant with a Cayman foundation and that her tokens would vest over three years.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC CME futures open interest continues to rise, topping $17 billion for the first time since February. Meanwhile, growth in ETH open interest has stalled above $2 billion. However, the premium in ETH futures is slightly higher than BTC’s. On offshore exchanges, perpetual funding rates continue to flash bullish with sub-10% readings. BCH, TON perpetual funding rates remain negative, suggesting a bias for shorts and potential for a short squeeze should the market move higher. In options, flows on OTC network Paradigm featured demand for calls, especially the $180K call expiring in September.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.64% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $106,257.16 (24hrs: +1.23%)ETH is up 0.42% at $2,525.16 (24hrs: +0.51%)CoinDesk 20 is down 0.27% at 2,268.01 (24hrs: +0.6%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 3.03%BTC funding rate is at 0.0088% (9.6886% annualized) on BinanceDXY is down 0.49% at 99.63Gold is up 1% at $3,313.10/ozSilver is up 1.02% at $33.31/ozNikkei 225 closed -0.61% at 37,298.98Hang Seng closed +0.62% at 23,827.78FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,768.01Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.45% at 5,430.16DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.27% at 42,677.24S&P 500 closed -0.39% at 5,940.46Nasdaq closed -0.38% at 19,142.71S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.32% at 26,055.6S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.26% at 2,631.81U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.54%E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.76% at 5,914.75E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.81% at 21,274.50E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.76% at 42,447.00
Bitcoin Stats
BTC Dominance: 64.01 (-0.15%)Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02378 (0.63%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 884 EH/sHashprice (spot): $56.1Total Fees: 7.42 BTC / $784,400CME Futures Open Interest: 160,155BTC priced in gold: 32.3 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 9.15%
Technical Analysis
BTC rose as high as $108,000 early today but struggled to maintain the momentum, with the hourly chart MACD histogram turning negative.Prices will likely consolidate for some time, allowing a positive reset of the MACD, following which the next leg higher could resume.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $416.92 (+0.85%), down 0.58% at $414.50 in pre-marketCoinbase Global (COIN): closed at $261.38 (-0.99%), down 0.67% at $259.64Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$30.52 (-3.08%)MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.19 (-0.8%), down 1.17% at $16Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.93 (-0.45%), down 1.46% at $8.80Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.92 (+0.65%), down 2.2% at $10.68CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.7 (-1.42%), down 1.65% at $9.54CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.99 (-0.77%)Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.88 (-3.21%), up 2.63% at $42.98Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.51 (+1.77%), down 1.45% at $34.01
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $329.2 millionCumulative net flows: $42.75 billionTotal BTC holdings ~ 1.19 million
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $64.8 millionCumulative net flows: $2.61 billionTotal ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Strategy (MSTR) has been accumulating bitcoin at a breakneck speed, maintaining the pace even during the March-April price swoon. “From GameStop to MetaPlanet to Strategy’s $60B stash, BTC is reshaping corporate finance. Discover how the ’42/42 Plan’ could become a blueprint for others,” 21Shares said on X.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Sets Record Daily Close With $110K as the Next Level to Watch for BTC (CoinDesk): Bitcoin set a record high close on Tuesday at $106,830 as spot ETF inflows rose and bond-market turmoil fueled concerns over fiscal stability, which analysts say could benefit BTC and gold.SEC Charges Unicoin, Top Executives With $100M ‘Massive Securities Fraud’ (CoinDesk): The SEC alleged Unicoin misled investors by inflating property values, overstating sales claims — touting $3 billion when only $110 million was raised — and promoting rights certificates with exaggerated return promises.U.K. Inflation Jumps, Reinforcing Bank of England’s Caution (The Wall Street Journal): Annual inflation rose more than forecast to 3.5% in April on rising labor and energy costs. Projections suggest a gradual return to target by 2027.‘Days to Cover mNAV’: The New Standard for Evaluating Bitcoin Equities (CoinDesk): This metric estimates how long a company would need to accumulate enough bitcoin to justify its market cap based on daily yield and net asset value multiple.Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Buy America Except the Dollar (Bloomberg): Morgan Stanley strategists expect 2026 Fed rate cuts to benefit U.S. stocks and Treasuries, while forecasting dollar weakness as growth and yield advantages over other economies shrink.IMF Urges U.S. to Curb Deficit as Trump Tax Cut Plan Stirs Debt Fears (Financial Times): The IMF’s first deputy managing director said U.S. fiscal policy should aim to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and warned that trade uncertainty remains high despite recent tariff relief.
In the Ether
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data
